A Whakaata Māori exclusive poll has revealed that Te Pāti Māori newcomer, Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, is just four percentage points behind Labour’s Nanaia Mahuta.

The poll, conducted by Curia Market Research, has Mahuta leading on 36% and Maipi-Clarke on 32%.  Undecided were 14%.

If elected, 20-year-old Maipi-Clarke will become New Zealand’s youngest MP in 170 years and is number four on her party’s list.  Mahuta is the country’s longest serving female MP, has held multiple portfolios and isn’t standing on Labour’s list.  

The poll revealed older voters aged 60+ supported Mahuta as the preferred candidate at 43% compared to Maipi-Clarke on 12%.  Older voters were far more likely to vote.

But the lead flipped among those aged under 40, who backed Maipi-Clarke at 43% compared to Mahuta, 30%.  

Whakaata Māori released the poll results during a live debate between Mahuta and Maipi-Clarke from its new studio, Hawaikirangi, in East Tāmaki.  

The poll also raised the stakes on the preferred party.

Labour and Te Pāti Māori are neck and neck, both polling at 26% followed by National on 14%, Green Party 8%, New Zealand First 6% and ACT 5%.  Undecided were 7% and 2% refused to say.

Removing undecided and refused, Labour has 29% of the party vote (36% lower than the 2020 election).  Te Pāti Māori has 28% (16% higher), National 15% (11% higher), Greens 9% (3% higher), NZ First 6% (2% higher) and ACT 5% (4% higher).

Cost of Living has been the most important issue across the polling of four Māori electorates to date. In Hauraki-Waikato, cost of living 30% was followed by economy 10%, jobs 9%, housing 6% and health 5%.

The preferred prime minister was Chris Hipkins 33%, Christopher Luxon 12%, Winston Peters 9% and Rawiri Waititi, 8%.

Polling was completed on Wednesday 27 September.   A total of 500 registered voters in Hauraki-Waikato were polled by landline, mobile and online with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 per cent at the 95% confidence level.

Join Whakaata Māori for WHAKATAU 2023 and more exclusive polling as we continue to test the pulse of the Māori electorates on air and online, MĀORI+ and teaonews.co.nz.

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